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SABR 201: Linear Weights by the 24 base/out states, 1999-2002 (June 10, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 3:00 p.m.,
June 11, 2003
(#5) -
Jim Keller
I haven't studied the subject of statistical analysis enough to question any of your data, but I think in order to determine how much of an impact a batter has on the game in question it would be necessary to expand your base/out states to account for the inning and the score differential. A starter working the fourth inning with a 5-run lead will have a much different approach to his pitching than a closer working the ninth with a 1-run lead, as will the batters have different approaches to their at-bats.
Further, I think that the number of runs expected to be scored in an inning is not the most important factor to evaluate. What matters most about the outcome of a PA is whether the batter has increased or decreased the likelihood that his team will win the game. Here again, it is essential to include the inning and score differential. A grand slam in the bottom of the ninth with the home team 3 runs down obviously has a much larger impact on the result of a game than does a solo home run in the bottom of the eighth with the home team ahead by 10 runs. In order to figure this out, an analysis would have to be done to determine the likelihood of a team to win a game for each of over 11,000 states (+/-13 runs (the smallest run differential that has never been overcome in a game), 0-26 outs as the home team, 0-26 outs as the visiting team and the 8 base runner states). Whether this is feasible given the tremendous amount of information required to get reliable data is something I don't know. Once this has been done, all one needs to do is compare the likelihood of winning the game before the PA to the likelihood of winning the game after the PA to determine whether the PA was beneficial, neutral or detrimental.